27 January 2012
With the way it looks like the ACC will play out this year, this is a big game for the Hoos. I know we keep talking about being in the top 4 for in the ACC, but it is just more than hype. First off, finishing in the top four means a first round bye into the ACC Tournament, and even finishing 3rd means that it means that team will see a very winnable game. Secondly, and most importantly, the conference is heading down a path to another year of limited bids to the NCAA. With Duke and UNC being locks, and the early and impressive play by Florida State, it looks like they could have locked up a bid as well, even with those bad non-conference losses. The only other two viable candidates for the post season from the ACC are Virginia and NC State, and this contest Saturday is the only time we will see the Pack all year. Enough pressure for ya'll?
Team
The Packs record is not super impressive at 15-6 and 4-2 in conference, but it a little deceiving. Their only non-conference losses have come to Vanderbilt (which at one point was impressive), Indiana (who is having a great season), at Stanford (who like Vandy was playing good), and Syracuse (nuff said). They have a good win over Texas, which matches up with the Hoos win over Michigan, and the rest were par for the course. In the ACC they have beaten Wake, BC, Miami, and Maryland, with the Terps representing the most “impressive” victory, creating that dividing line between good and bad teams. The loss at UNC on Thursday was not unexpected, but the home lost to woeful Georgia Tech by 11 was. If you could find a team most like Virginia in record only, this would be them.
Players
Mark Gottfried’s first order of business was to speed up things for the Pack after the Sydney Lowe era, but still implement the value of the set offense. The result? A massive jump in points per game for their top 6 leading scorers. F Scott Wood, F C.J. Leslie, G Lorenzo Brown, G C.J. Williams, C DeShawn Painter, and F Richard Howell all average above 12 points a game, up an average of about 5 points per game from a year ago. They are very upperclassmen heavy, with only reserves Alex Johnson and Thomas de Thaey being the most used freshmen by the Pack.
Game Plan
They are very big and long at all the positions, with their starting guards both checking in a 6-5. This will create a matchup problem for Evans and Z, so working help around in the form of Harris or Brogdon will be essential. To counter that, NC State will look to go inside to Leslie and Painter all game, with small forward Scott Wood being able to score from everywhere on the court, even behind the arc (see Harrie, Joe). They are one of the best assist teams in the country, so they can work it around an can create a shot or get it to the high percentage post players. Thankfully, if we can keep them out of the low paint, their shooting percentage is very similar to ours, meaning we can keep them to one-and-outs. In addition, while they can go very deep to rest players, production seems to fall off when a majority of the starters are not in the game. I know this is not a game we seem to play a lot this year, but we have to find a way to get at least 1 or 2 of their interior players in foul trouble early and on the bench, allowing us to dig out of a hole or establish an early lead.
Prediction
Before the Virginia Tech game (and the Sene injury) I would have seen this as a game that we could have gone in, played our style of game, and emerged victorious. Now, I am not that confident. The only way NC State lost to GT, was that the Jackets shot 51% from the field, 60% from 3, and 75% from the line down the stretch, while allowing the Pack to score 71 points. Even if the Hoos could come anywhere close to those numbers, the points will still need to be down in the 60s, sorta like the Duke game. Virginia has never been out of a game all year, and they should be in the mix throughout this game, but unless we can find someone else to step up besides Mike Scott, we won’t be able to pull this one out. And since I can’t pick out one other player at this point in the season, the nod goes to NC State.
