01 September 2010
Come on in. Have a seat. The Shammy knows why you are here.
We are bringing back one of our favorite parts of football season: College Football Picks. Each week, we will be selecting a variety of college football games from all across the nation and put our hard earned "money" and pride on the line. We only bet against the spread, because telling you that "Ohio State will beat Eastern New Mexico School of Rocks" is not much of a stretch. All lines are the official Vegas/Off Shore Betting lines as of the time of the article that can be verified by anyone [Legal Disclaimer: Lambeth Field or the Shammy does not condone illegal betting of any kind. For entertainment purposes only. Except in Vegas, where it is both legal and entertaining. I mean, have you been to those.....what....oh, yeah, don't do it.]
For those who don't know what we are talking about, let me give you an example from this first game of the season.
Southern Mississippi @ South Carolina (-14) -105
The above example means that South Carolina is favored to beat Southern Mississippi by 14 points. If you believe that USC will beat USM by more than 14 points, you bet on the Gamecocks. If you think the Golden Eagles will lose by less than 14 points or wins, you bet on Southern Miss. If the Cocks beat the G-Eagles by 14 exactly, it is a "push" and no money is won or lost. For our picks, we will not be taking any "juice", which show up as -105 or -110 in the money lines. This means you would pay 5 or 10 percent to the book service for your bet, which is how they make most of their money. We will track our winning percentage all season. 55% and you make your money back, 60% and you will make some money, 61% or more, you're welcome. Alright let's get to the picks.
Pittsburgh (+3) @ Utah; Thursday, 8:30pm
Right of the bat, we are picking a high profile non-conference matchup. I have been looking at this game for about two weeks and I see a mismatch here that a lot of people are not picking up. Pittsburgh comes in as a road underdog, but they have a better team on a neutral field. The Panthers running back Dion Lewis is a stud and they will be running a ton of plays for him, and he will respond with some big runs. Utah is not the same team it was just a few years ago when they went undefeated. They have two good running backs in Asiata and Wide and will be running the ball versus their usual spread passing game. If Utah gets down early, they will start passing the ball around, and that's where Pitt's big front four will take over and pressure the Utes QB. I actually like Pittsburgh to win this game, so the breathing room is appreciated. Shammy sez: Pittsburgh
USC (+21) @ Hawai'i; Thursday, 11:00pm
I am aware of all the off season distractions that Southern California has gone through. Lane Kiffin. Reggie Bush. But where most teams look at going to Hawaii as a vacation, the Trojans live in LA, so it's not that much better. Well, not enough where a PAC-10 powerhouse like USC will be distracted. And I am also aware that there are going to be a lot of freshman that will start this game at the skilled positions, like running back and wide receiver. But they are lllooooaaaddddeeeddd at these spots with 5-star recruits. And Lane Kiffin has not seen a point spread he doesn't like...or like to exploit. He will run up the score if he has a chance, and he will get it at a team that went 6-7 last year. Shammy sez: USC.
Minnesota @ Middle Tennessee State (+2.5); Thursday, 7:30pm
***Upset Alert*** Our first one of the season. This line started at 4.5 points for MTSU, but the betting public looked at a Big Ten vs. Sun Belt matchup and pushed it all the way to the Golden Gophers side. The bettors loss is our gain. The Blue Raiders are looking for another conference title and Minnesota is Big Ten in name only. Dwight Dasher will expose a weak Minnesota defense that lost all of their starters from last year, but the Gophers can score on offense as well. This will be a back and forth games. But breaking news here at the Lambeth Field Sports Desk has two starters for UofM not making the trip to Tennessee due to being suspended for rules violations. Look for MTSU to win this game, possibly by a touchdown or two. But with the line where it is, we'll take that as well. Shammy sez: Middle Tennessee State.
Miami (OH) @ Florida (-36); Saturday, noon
No Tim Tebow. No problem. New Gator quarterback John Brantley is embracing the role as the man in Gainesville. They still have all the same weapons on offense and that blitzing defense. Miami of Ohio is, to be nice, a very poor football team this year, and will be fighting to win a game in the MAC. On the road against a better-than-average SEC team, 36 points will come an go pretty quickly. No more convincing needed. Shammy sez: Florida
Northwestern @ Vanderbilt (+4.5); Saturday, 7:30pm
***Upset Alert*** Two in one week. What has come over us. This line started at 3 and moved to as much as 6 before settling at 4.5. Out for Vandy is their head coach Bobby Johnson who toke a small, private school and made then into a respectable SEC team. He also left the cabinet fairly full of talent that knows how to put points on the board. But so does Northwestern. Even though they lost their starting quarterback and most of the offense, they have reloaded several times the past 4 years and still manage to average 26 points per game over that stretch. But the Wildcats never play defense, which will give this wide open Commodore offense plenty of room to breath. Vandy might end up losing this game, but it will be very, very close. Like less than a field goal. So 4.5 is good enough for us. Shammy sez: Vanderbilt.
Purdue (+11) @ Norte Dame; Saturday, 3:30pm
We are going against the grain on this one. Most sane people will think that ND will rout the Boilermakers. But we see something different. Brian Kelly brings with him to South Bend a new offense and must break in a new quarterback. Most bettors stay away from picking a team for (1) new coach, (2) new quarterback, (3) new offensive look without the players to play it. Here we have all three. And Purdue will be ready defensively for the Fighting Irish, which will keep the game low scoring. Which, in turn, means that 11 points looks like 60. This line hasn't moved at all since it came out, which usually means the split is with in 10%, so, at the end of the day, we are not that far off. Shammy sez: Purdue.
Texas (+30.5) @ Rice; Saturday, 3:30pm
Texas is making the long trip to Houston for this game. The long and short of this is they could play this game in Moscow and it won't make a difference. Rice runs the triple option, which fools good teams for about 2 offensive series. Texas has the speed on defense to handle anything the Owls will throw at them. This game will be about 3 touchdowns at half for the Longhorns and then will get worse from there. Shammy sez: Texas
North Carolina vs. LSU (-4.5); Georgia Dome, Saturday, 8 pm
In my 12 years of college football betting, I have never seen a line move like this one. It started LSU by 1, then the scandal hit and the line went to LSU +3. Tuesday, when it was known that only Marvin Austin would be the only one to sit it went to LSU +1. And now as I am writing this article it has come down that as many as 17 players might not play for the Tar Heels on Saturday. This uncertainty does not favor the late bettor like me, but I had always envisioned LSU winning this game by around 6 to 7 points. So my cushion is gone. But some underlying themes still exist. LSU is playing for pride at this point, with there head coach clearly on the hot seat in Baton Rouge. UNC's bread and butter was to be their amazing defense this year, but with those players gone, the load will have to be carried by a mediocre-at-best offense, and I don't see them getting it done that way. Not a confident, but I'm going to stick by my pick regardless. Quick note: This game could go "OFF", which means off the board because of unknown factors. If this happens, it goes of our picks, and won't be counted. It's not like a push, cause you get your money back before the game is played. Shammy sez: LSU
Boise State vs. Va. Tech (+2); FedEx Field, Monday, 8pm
Everyone told me to stay away from this pick. Tech, with 75,000 screaming fans in Washington D.C. AND gets 2 points, slam dunk, right? Not so fast. This is not your dad's Broncos. This isn't even your older brothers Boise State team. A few years ago when they went 11-1 or 10-2, they drubbed a ton of creampuffs. But this team went 12-0 last year, returns 21 of 22 starters, and could go undefeated again. So where to go with this one. On paper, when you run the numbers it is a 'pick' for Va Tech, which means that the game is so close that you just pick the winner and neither team gets any points. But rule number 25 of betting "the home team gets 4 points for being at home". Boise State could be a better team than the Hokies anywhere else outside of Virginia, but this is a virtual home game for Tech, so that's at least worth 2 points. Plus if I'm wrong, Hokie fans will go another year without winning a national championship. Win-win with this pick. Shammy sez: ugh, Va Tech.
Good luck to all my picks!
