The ACC Baseball Tournament

We have finished off another baseball regular season, and now the fun really begins. From here on out, Virginia will be facing, to steal a line from Top Gun, the best of the best. And no, we will not sing ‘You’ve Lost That Loving Feeling’, so don’t ask. I will not jump up on my soapbox, as I have done on Twitter all weekend about how UVa finishes the year with the most ACC wins, takes 2 of 3 on the road at UNC, and sweeps FSU, and is seeded 3^rd in the Tournament, because that will not get us anywhere now. That will not change in the foreseeable future. Luckily, this might be one of the last years off pool play, so we have that going for us. But in the 2013, we are back to the tried and true system, played from Wednesday through Sunday. So who will UVa face? Let’s break it down.

The Field

As much as we wrote last week on the Tourney probabilities, it sorted out relatively quickly, without much movement. Here are the pools.

Pool A

#1 UNC (47-8, 21-7)

#4 NC State (42-13, 19-10)

#5 Clemson (39-17, 18-12)

#8 Miami (35-21, 14-16)

Pool B

#2 FSU (44-11, 10-10)

#3 UVa (45-9, 22-8)

#6 VT (35-19, 15-14)

#7 GT (33-23, 15-15)

Now while we had the teams in the pools correct, there was a little flp-flopping with NC State/Clemson and Virginia Tech/Georgia Tech. All that means is when UVa plays those teams in the tournament.

Virginia Primer

#3 Virginia Cavaliers (45-9, 22-8)

PG Ranking: 4

RPI Ranking: 3

Team BA: 9^th (.316); Runs: 3^rd (447)

Team ERA: 29^th (3.11); Fielding %: 104^th (.969)

Starting Pitchers

Brandon Waddell (5-1, 4.00 ERA, 71 K, 21 BB)

Scott Silverstein (8-1, 3.19 ERA, 57 K, 21 BB)

Nick Howard (5-4, 3.43 ERA, 50 K, 15 BB)

Key Batters

Mike Papi (.408, 5 HR, 51 RBI)

Brandon Downes (.327, 8 HR, 56 RBI)

Joe McCarthy (.333, 3 HR, 47 RBI)

It’s not that Virginia has been successful this year, it is how they have been successful. Coming into this season, you knew that the Hoos would have a solid core to their batting order, but pitching was a huge question mark. Brian O’Connor just shrugged that off and put together a elite level batting order which can hurt you top to bottom and can change the fortune of the team very quickly. He also put 3 guys together no one saw to take over pitching duties and with a very young bullpen, became a very solid pitching team, much better than anyone could have imagined. Virginia will be without the services of their key leadoff man Cogswell for the ACC tourney and likely without Towns, but they still have enough power to go toe to toe with the best counter offenses this week. But with a good hitting team, you need to keep that up. While the starting pitching looks well, if they go cold offensively, it could be an issue down the line (see 2010, 2012). They will have to strike first and often. The big innings are their, especially late against opponents relief pitchers, but they need to be within striking distance. 

Virginia’s Path

#6 Virginia Tech Hokies (35-19, 15-14); Wednesday, 3pm

PG Ranking: 15

RPI Ranking: 15

Team BA: 56^th (.290); Runs: 27^th (363)

Team ERA: 160^th (4.41); Fielding %: 204^th (.962)

Starting Pitchers

Joe Mantiply (5-0, 3.14 ERA, 46K, 19BB)

Devin Burke (9-3, 3.49 ERA, 44K, 30 BB)

Brad Markey (4-4, 5.40 ERA, 64K, 19 BB)

Key Batters

Chad Pinder (.322, 4 HR, 40 RBI)

Tyler Horan (.344, 11 HR, 50 RBI)

Andrew Rush (.327, 9 HR, 56 RBI)

Vs. Virginia

4/26: L, 15-6

4/27: W, 5-3

4/28: W, 11-6

Don’t let Virginia Tech’s bats fool you, they are very, very potent and have plenty of hitters that can do quick damage, whether by extra base hits, or taking it out of the yard. Their two knocks have been pitching and fielding, which has kept teams in games. You will rarely see them play low scoring games, so Virginia will have to match power with power. In a double elimination format, usually you would see Silverstein in this matchup, with Waddell pitching the second game, but against a team that can really pop and knowing 1 loss early can pretty much knock you out of the tournament, you want your best on the mound early, so look for Waddell on the bump, who won his matchup the first go around, even though he surrendered 6 earned runs. Markey started opposite of him the first go around, but it would not surprise me if Burke or Mantiply gets the nod first. The key will be runs, runs, and more runs.

#7 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (33-23, 15-15); Thursday, 11am

PG Ranking: RV

RPI Ranking: 22

Team BA: 18^th (.307); Runs: 18^th (385)

Team ERA: 168^th (4.51); Fielding %: 65^th (.972)

Starting Pitchers

Buck Farmer (8-4, 2.80 ERA, 104 K, 29 BB)

Dusty Isaacs (4-6, 4.48 ERA, 58 K, 30 BB)

Cole Pitts (5-3, 5.13 ERA, 38 K, 28 BB)

Key Batters

Kyle Wren (.370, 2 HR, 25 RBI)

Zane Evans (.364, 14 HR, 62 RBI)

Daniel Palka (.344, 17 HR, 63 RBI)

Vs. Virginia

4/12: W, 2-1

4/13: L, 7-2

4/14: W, 3-2

Georgia Tech can score with the best of anyone in the ACC, but the consistency up and down the lineup is not as balanced as UVa. They have a solid leadoff guy in Wren, and use Evans and Palka to do most of their damage. If the back end of their lineup gets going, they can put a hurting on teams quickly. Thankfully, they are not a strong pitching staff, and you would have to think they will throw Farmer against FSU in game 1, which means that Virginia will have solid chances against Isaacs or Pitts. Silverstein won his first matchup with GT, and will fit nicely into the second game to keep the rotation in tact. Controlling the big three will be a key, but they will need to score more than they did in Atlanta last month to pull this one off.

#2 Florida State Seminoles (44-11, 20-10); Saturday, 11am

PG Ranking: 7

RPI Ranking: 5

Team BA: 58^th (.290); Runs: 23^rd (376)

Team ERA: 11^th (2.68); Fielding %: 146^th (.966)

Starting Pitchers

Luke Weaver (6-2, 2.08 ERA, 91 K, 16 BB)

Brandon Leibrandt (9-4, 3.30 ERA, 72 K, 27 BB)

Scott Sitz (9-1, 1.66 ERA, 61 K, 19 BB)

Key Batters

DJ Stweart (.328, 4 HR, 51 RBI)

Marcus Davis (.312, 9 HR, 52 RBI)

Stephen McGee (.299, 8 HR, 45 RBI)

Vs. Virginia

4/19: L, 9-2

4/20: L, 2-0

4/21: L, 5-2

Who does #2 work for? There is a reason they are the second seed in the tourney, and it is not that they just won the Atlantic. Most pundits have them as a national seed because they pitch very well and when they get runners on the bases, they make you pay, and it should look very familiar. They are a small ball team this year, doing damage on the extra base hits, with very few runs coming by the long ball. That combination works very well when it comes to tournament play, whether it is ACC or NCAA. Now both teams have a very interesting situation to plan for. This is the last matchup before the championship game, and it is the hardest matchup for either team. You would like to pitch your #1s, but you want to come into the game 2-0 and will likely have to use your top guys to get to that mark. Now Sitz a Sunday pitcher with Friday numbers, likely going against Howard, who has been solid, but not outstanding at times. Virginia will need to keep that UNC mentality going into the game. Don’t worry about guys getting hits, just making sure they don’t get home. They did a great job in C’Ville last month and will need another outstanding outing from Nick if they want to see Sunday.

Overall Impressions

Virginia will be tested early in the ACC with VT and GTs bats, but have enough bats to keep pace with them. If they can navigate those matchups, they will get a long look at a CWS caliber team in FSU, and, if they win, another in UNC/NCSU/Clemson. As far as our national seeding is concerned, Virginia should not have to worry too much. Their record and RPI are superb and the only threat they would have to getting knocked down to the ‘regional host status’ would be an 0-3 performance and teams like NC State, South Carolina, UCLA, and Oregon to get on a huge hot streak. I’ve could say that it could never happen, but I’m not going to jinx it. Bottom line is that with so many good teams in the ACCT, it is anyone’s tourney. As long as Virginia can do what they have shown they can do this year, they can do very, very well.

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